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Often it seems we attribute a 50ft putt to luck, or more often it seems a nice 100-200 ft shot to luck. and of course those Ace;s all of you seem to be getting..to luck.
But I always seem to think ..well, if you threw in the general direction of the basket and maybe closed your eyes it might be luck, but otherwise if you were aiming for the basket and it goes in in any situation ( ok..maybe unless it skips in or bounces off a tree..) then it was skill!! right?

Ok. so then what about all those missed shots? do we suck that bad? or is it not as easy as some make it look? haha..ok, maybe its just me!

Do you contribute a nice long shot or putt to skill or luck? I say skill.

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I agree with Bruce, "Luck" does not exist.

If "luck" were to exist, then I would have seen the Tooth Fairy or Santa Claus when I was younger.

People often feel that they are "lucky" with a specific slot machine or blackjack dealer.
This is not true, they are merely more comfortable with the situation or person they are interacting with and therefore have more confidence.

"Luck" is nothing more than a combination of circumstances that results in a favorable or unfavorable outcome.

So i guess it's easier for someone to say, "That was a lucky shot" than to say, "The wind speed/direction, barometric pressure, temperature, humidity, and your footwork, hip turn, shoulder turn, aim, wrist snap and anything else that affected your shot was ideal for your disc to end up underneath the basket."

or I prefer the appropriate response of, "Perfect Shot."
I guess I believe in both...If you were standing on the tee pad and threw in the opposite direction of the hole and found yourself under the basket anyway, that would be really lucky.
At the same time if you fling one slightly off course and have it redirected under the basket thanks to some tree, fence, stick, etc., I would call that lucky, too.

If the disc leaves your hand with the speed and angle envisioned before throwing, I would call that skill. When you say "go in" the second your disc leaves your hand on an Ace, that sounds like skill too. Environmental factors aside, if someone calls THAT luck, I would have a really hard time agreeing.

I do believe that skill lends itself to luck. The likelyhood of your hitting a tree next to a basket ~300 ft away and having it wind up underneath the basket is predicated by the fact that you can throw 300ft(relatively straight) in the first place. More often than not, a good shot is a combination of both..
Flip a coin 100 times. It will always come up 50% heads & 50% tails.
This is based on the law of probability.


Would you bet on that? ....that a coin flipped 100 times will always come up 50% heads and 50% tails, exactly. Please say yes and bring your money.
Try it and see what you come up with.
Did this in ninth grade physics.
It is probable the coin will split 50/50.
Then maybe you should go back to ninth grade....because the outcome is completly random.

...and wasn't it in a math class where you covered Probability Theory ....not Physics?
Regardless of what class covered Probability Theory, Physics or Math...the outcome of a series of coin flips is random.

So the results of 100 coin flips will not always be 50-50.
you must have skipped ninth grade...
try it...obvously have not and you probably won't either/
I'll try it, if you wager on a perfect outcome of 50 - 50, not 48 - 52, 42 - 58 or anything else.
The probability of that is slim and none....and that's predictibility. Ha!!!
As far as remembering what exactly we learned in the 9th grade physics, some 25+ years ago....two words....yeah right.

Rock, Paper, Scissors for a buck....Clark?
In my opinion it's all about risk. If you play risky, you increase the variance of your play. You take the risk of a bad shot, but you also keep alive the chance for a good one. For example, you throw a long shot across water. The basket is right at the opposite edge. You know you have a 80% chance to make it across the pond. If you don't make it, your disc lands in the water, but if you do make it, it's a birdie. Are you willing to take the risk? In a practice round maybe yes, but in a tournament round? I would regard it as good luck if you make a good shot although the chances are against you. Otherwise I would regard it as bad luck if you play safe and something unwanted happens. I often met players who thought they were unlucky, but simply took too much risk. For this reason it's easier to play a good practice round than a good tournament round. You simply take more risk, remember the "lucky" rounds and forget about the unlucky ones.
well said!!!!!
So....if you tumble off the tee pad, will you land on your tail...50% of the time and your head 50% of the time...couldn't resist!!!
half a pad

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