Luck or Skill ??

Often it seems we attribute a 50ft putt to luck, or more often it seems a nice 100-200 ft shot to luck. and of course those Ace;s all of you seem to be getting..to luck.
But I always seem to think ..well, if you threw in the general direction of the basket and maybe closed your eyes it might be luck, but otherwise if you were aiming for the basket and it goes in in any situation ( ok..maybe unless it skips in or bounces off a tree..) then it was skill!! right?

Ok. so then what about all those missed shots? do we suck that bad? or is it not as easy as some make it look? haha..ok, maybe its just me!

Do you contribute a nice long shot or putt to skill or luck? I say skill.

[Mike Coleman]

I guess I believe in both...If you were standing on the tee pad and threw in the opposite direction of the hole and found yourself under the basket anyway, that would be really lucky.
At the same time if you fling one slightly off course and have it redirected under the basket thanks to some tree, fence, stick, etc., I would call that lucky, too.

If the disc leaves your hand with the speed and angle envisioned before throwing, I would call that skill. When you say "go in" the second your disc leaves your hand on an Ace, that sounds like skill too. Environmental factors aside, if someone calls THAT luck, I would have a really hard time agreeing.

I do believe that skill lends itself to luck. The likelyhood of your hitting a tree next to a basket ~300 ft away and having it wind up underneath the basket is predicated by the fact that you can throw 300ft(relatively straight) in the first place. More often than not, a good shot is a combination of both..

[Bernd Wender]

In my opinion it's all about risk. If you play risky, you increase the variance of your play. You take the risk of a bad shot, but you also keep alive the chance for a good one. For example, you throw a long shot across water. The basket is right at the opposite edge. You know you have a 80% chance to make it across the pond. If you don't make it, your disc lands in the water, but if you do make it, it's a birdie. Are you willing to take the risk? In a practice round maybe yes, but in a tournament round? I would regard it as good luck if you make a good shot although the chances are against you. Otherwise I would regard it as bad luck if you play safe and something unwanted happens. I often met players who thought they were unlucky, but simply took too much risk. For this reason it's easier to play a good practice round than a good tournament round. You simply take more risk, remember the "lucky" rounds and forget about the unlucky ones.

[Gnome Hunter]

well said!!!!!

[Tate Handy]

It all comes down to what you consider luck to be. take a 50' putt for example: skill is definitely involved but there are intangibles also. There are 2 players, a pro and a newbie. The pro player steps up and jump putts a mostly straight shot that slowly makes its way to the basket and drops right in. The new player doesn't quite have that control with the firebird he's putting with. He steps up and plays his extreme hyzer putt and it somehow manages to miss everything and have the exact line it takes to stay in the basket. Sure they both make the basket but was one luckier than the other? I think so. Disc golf comes down to consistency and odds. Choosing the highest percentage shot (ie. the right line and disc ) for a situation gives you a better chance to make the shot, hence decreasing the need for luck. The newbie was luckier in this situation because he had the smaller window for success yet was still triumphant.

Also in the same regard, and something that has bothered me in my small experience playing, is the "perfect" shot that goes wrong. its not a "perfect shot gone wrong" if your drive skips way into the woods after hitting the fairway or a putt slides right through the chains. the gods are not punishing you, it just wasn't perfect. Perfect shots end up good, thats why they are called such. If you hit the chains dead center you have a better chance of making it but not 100%.

As far as lucky charms are concerned: being superstitious is a strange habit. people like to take confidence from a certain token, so that if they do badly they can shift the blame to it instead of taking responsibility for themselves. its easy and many people do it. i'm not saying its wrong, but its kinda silly.

Whether luck exists is or not, it is an intangible just like being "clutch" in high pressure situations. its good to have but measuring it is tough. Mr. Ellis and Mr. Brakel (good shooting btw) do with this what you will...