A few years back I had a favorite anhyzer disc that I lost a couple times and had it returned to me. I was surprised and grateful to get it back and decided I was going to be much more careful with it. So I just would not throw it on risky water shots or certain snowy conditions. I would put a back up disc in the bag when I needed to protect the beloved disc.
Well playing at a tournament at a course I knew well ( Cass Benton, Northville, Michigan) I didn't realize that a couple made-up holes had been added. When I came to a hole which I had never seen before, a long tight drive with water on the left and OB on the right, I had no back up disc for the shot and the wind was bad too. So I walked up to drive with two discs in my hand, the beloved disc and another which was way too stable to do the job except for the headwind. So I dropped the beloved disc and chose the other but just then the wind died so I quickly picked up the beloved disc and threw it before the wind changed.
Of course, just as I released the disc the wind came back strong, flipped it and knocked it down, right into the middle of the water. The stream/river was about 80 feet across and I knew I would never see it again.
I was wrong. A couple months later it came back. I would have bet 1000 to 1 against ever seeing that disc again. You just never know....